Trade Venezuela (US)

Do you realize that billions could emerge in the very short term with a change of power in Venezuela? Far beyond the brutal political effects of a state rooted in dictatorial controls and sustained by the military, the fall of the regime would provoke an immediate shock in the market. And I don’t believe Trump would do this for free: it is well known that he only acts when there are guarantees of enormous financial gains. The question is whether those gains would be for the United States as a nation or for groups aligned with him. But we cannot assume this is all just theater.

Trump has already been building structures to shield himself from legal troubles. For someone who has openly declared interest in regaining control of the Panama Canal — which would drastically reduce the cost of exporting U.S. goods and, above all, the oil transported by his affiliated companies — the limits seem very unclear. We are at a stage where almost anything goes: the logic is that the U.S. can do without fear what it does not allow China to do. This creates a dangerous game, where each side turns a blind eye to the other’s freedom of action, just to preserve its own margin of maneuver.

In China’s case, this freedom is even more stable, since Xi Jinping faces no internal counterbalances. Trump, on the other hand, even knowing that he could face personal legal chaos after leaving office, seems to be building a political and financial power structure for the post-presidency period. His admiration for Putin is explained precisely by the Russian model of unrestricted freedom and endless presidency.

This is a brutal, bloody game, one we are not part of. Putin may well be the leader who values human life the least, but I don’t see humanity as a priority for Trump either. Xi, in turn, is the most calculating and strategic — and therefore the most dangerous, because he acts without internal restraints. Still, he avoids stretching the rope to the point of direct war, while keeping Russia active in Ukraine to prevent the U.S. from expanding its direct or indirect influence over the wealth of that region and over countries that were part of the former Soviet Union.

Regardless of how Trump structures his gains, it is undeniable that Venezuela needs to be freed from Maduro and the mafia that sustains him. He embodies the very misery of the Venezuelan people. And there is no way the country will not improve with his departure. Beyond the human and political aspect, the regime change will be a massive trade for Venezuelan oil. It is worth watching which oil companies will align with PDVSA in the post-Maduro era: it could even represent an opportunity for small investors.