Provincial Elections in Buenos Aires (09/07/2025) — a Brazilian Analysis

Unbelievable misconduct by allies and poor handling of Congress have undermined what could have been an easy victory for President Javier Milei’s party. It is astonishing how clear wins have been turned into defeats caused by Milei’s own foolish missteps and by picking unnecessary fights, combined with serious suspicions about the conduct of people close to the president, require immediate correction, otherwise, the triumphant return of Argentine chavismo, known to us as Peronism, will occur.

This is how the provincial elections in Buenos Aires are shaping up—serving as a kind of electoral survey of the president’s approval in Argentina’s largest and most important province.

The picture is troubling: foolish mistakes are putting the country at risk, opening the door once again to political forces that advocate economic policies similar to those that led Venezuela into collapse. What is missing is civic education: the masses still cling to handouts and government favors instead of supporting the structural transformations that could truly lift them out of poverty.

One of the biggest blows was the suspicion of misconduct involving the president’s sister. This was, without doubt, the “bullet of greatest impact” against La Libertad Avanza in these elections. The issue gained traction precisely when the Brazilian press had stopped talking about Argentina—since the country was showing signs of economic recovery. Now, with political missteps and ethical controversies, Argentina is once again featured in Brazilian news, always from a negative angle against Milei. The same channels that ignored poverty reduction and falling inflation prefer to highlight crises, concealing any positive data that might show that economic freedom and a smaller state can actually foster development.

Another complicating factor is the “Trump effect.” It must be said clearly: Donald Trump’s economic thinking is fundamentally different from Milei’s. To be even clearer, Trump is nowhere near as economically sound as Milei. However, Milei cannot openly criticize him, as that would generate immense complications in trade agreements. A fragile Argentina, still recovering from decades of chaos, cannot afford to multiply enemies.

In addition, Milei needs to evaluate his own political and emotional control. His impulses, often turning into shouting and insults over trivial matters, only serve to gain him unnecessary opponents. How many votes has he lost simply by being rude to legislators who could have been won over through dialogue? A little presidential attention, a minimum of recognition, would have been enough to secure support from moderate sectors that today could be providing stability to the government.

To complicate matters unnecessarily is the biggest mistake. The hope is that Peronism does not bring back Chavismo. For this, Milei must make an honest self-criticism, correct the flaws in his advisory team, and learn to live with a moderate opposition. Not every divergence is an enemy. Many times, it is simply a misunderstanding of the new economic path. It is the president’s role to show, through dialogue, how a liberal economy can raise Argentina to levels that Brazil cannot even dream of today.