What If China Wakes Up to Brazil?

Brazil is such a hostage to politicians and their whims that it's hard not to predict it will become a country pulled along by China—an economic power with a clear global strategy for commercial influence. The only real question is whether India will manage to organize itself enough to compete with the Chinese. So far, I only see China running freely. India is a sleeping giant, yes, but China’s unified and continuous political control allows for long-term, tightly organized planning with an impressive level of competence.

I'm Ricardo Gurgel, an engineer who writes about economics and projections derived from the patterns the world reveals. Just like in engineering and mathematics, some projections strike me as either possible or quite obvious. Here, I share a few of these thought experiments.

China has already stabilized its relationship with Argentina and maintains good ties with Brazil, despite heavy tariffs on Chinese goods. Yet, it’s already looking for ways around these obstacles by investing directly in our country. It seems to be just waiting for a bit more economic competence on our part. If Brazil doesn’t show such competence in the next few years and fails to prevent catastrophic failures in its economy, I wouldn’t be surprised by a Chinese bailout—under strict conditions. China is the best negotiator in the world: tough, goal-oriented, and highly skilled at playing its cards.

Brazil suffers from such legal uncertainty that it seems to be the main reason why we haven’t seen massive Chinese purchases of properties, companies, and land here. Ironically, this dysfunction might be acting as a kind of shield against Chinese control. Whether this legal chaos is accidental or a convenient excuse for our own mess, I’d bet it’s the latter.

It’s puzzling that countries so aligned with China don’t try to imitate it. Honestly, I wouldn’t mind living in a country that mirrors many aspects of the Chinese economic model. Imagine affordable high-tech cars, electronics, TVs, bullet trains, and cutting-edge public transport—like a new Japan. Why don’t we adopt the Chinese economic system, with widespread market freedom, competition, support for entrepreneurship, favorable environmental policies for high-tech industry, private property, and public order? I’m not being ironic. Living in China’s highly developed regions is already better than in most countries. Ironically, I’ve basically described the system pursued by Argentina’s Javier Milei—and no, I’m not joking. Perhaps he, too, has realized how close China is to achieving efficient market economics. Of course, there are issues with limited information and some types of interventions, but Brazil is far from being a model of efficient governance.

Brazil is such a mess that I can easily imagine China one day sitting us down to discuss strategic trade deals and offering massive investments in infrastructure—along with lessons on how to become a capitalist superpower, albeit under Chinese guidance and interests.

We’re heading toward unpayable debts, uncontrolled money printing, and all the ingredients for runaway inflation and even greater inefficiency in our markets.

China Digital Radio or World Digital Radio

And it wouldn’t be surprising if, instead of debating whether to adopt the American (HD Radio) or European (DAB) digital radio system, Brazil ended up embracing a Chinese digital broadcasting standard. And some standards can become gold mines. If a country adopts your system across an entire sector, that means a huge captive market—and the possibility of influencing an entire region. I’ve already written here about Brazil’s delay in adopting telecommunication advances. The digital radio market isn’t just billion-dollar—it’s multi-billion.

The world is debating DAB, HD Radio, and DRM, but none of these have taken hold in Brazil—mainly due to the early and misguided push for HD Radio, which I never saw as viable for various reasons. DRM only stands a chance in Brazil if it’s deployed as a purely digital format in the AM band. DAB would require a much more radical digital transition and demands full-scale investment to succeed. With no standard gaining traction in Brazil, it’s entirely possible that the Chinese digital radio system could find an opening—and leap ahead technologically as a viable option here. You can’t underestimate China’s efficiency. They learn fast from what already exists. If the Chinese Communist Party decided to create a new global digital radio system, even one different from their own domestic model, they’d pull it off—and fast.

Unless DAB, DRM, and HD Radio move quickly, China may just take over the world of digital radio. They could wake up one day, decide to build a global system, and—as we know—they have the funds, the discipline, and the technical skill to deliver something of high quality and mass accessibility. The world is currently too distracted by conflict and division. But when the dust settles, this could become the new global standard. If things take too long, China might either step in and take over—or help ease the gridlock and claim the prize.