Growth Projection for DRM and Comparison with DAB+ and HD Radio in the Coming Years

How to understand growth

We must first define which growth parameters we are referring to, as it’s essential to establish the right metrics for clarity.

In this analysis, I will define:

• Growth in the number of radio stations broadcasting under each standard.

• Growth in the area covered with good-quality signal for each standard.

• Growth in the average listener base per standard.

It is essential to understand the fundamental distinction between:

• Population coverage: the number of people living in areas that are technically reached by a digital radio signal.

• Actual audience (listeners): the number of people who actually tune in, consume, and use the signal in their daily lives.

Key points in building a radio audience

• The number of listeners is always a percentage of the covered population, so reaching large populations is important to achieve significant numbers of regular listeners. In realistic terms, it is a small percentage that gradually reaches a significant portion of the population through audience fluctuation, which is why its importance is amplified by the routine of the covered population.

• Sophisticated programming is a complement to the radio world; meeting musical desires and communication nuances is the key to mass audience engagement. Overly refined radio stations should not be the focus of a country, at the risk of the population not tuning into such programming.

  
  

• Although seen as a competitor, streaming is a symptom of listeners' acceptance of the station's programming. Low streaming numbers may signal the need for qualitative audience research.

  
  

• Exact sciences should be professionally present in radio, not only in its technical/technological aspects but also in adjusting objective measurement formats for the results obtained with audiences over the course of programming adjustments, the introduction of new segments, and communication methods. This is to prevent the station from continuing to invest in adjustments that harm its audience due to a lack of reference and to enable the recognition of whether a new formula is effective.

Some general observations.

• All India Radio (AIR) frequently claims to have the largest DRM digital radio deployment in the world, and there is substantial evidence to support this claim.

• Shortwave coverage is international and complementary and is not counted toward domestic population coverage.

• In rural areas, the actual usage depends heavily on receiver distribution, with some programs delivering radios to schools and villages.

  
  

DRM in Cars – The Most Accurate Indicator

Car sales with DRM-equipped receivers offer the most tangible and verifiable insights into real market penetration. The automotive sector provides a controlled environment for tracking radio adoption. For example, when Brazil extended the FM band to include migrated AM stations (from 87.5 to 76.1 MHz), car radios were the first to reflect the change, well before portable or household radios adapted. Source: TRAI Report – May 2023

Applying the same logic, cars are the driving force behind DRM penetration in India. Even without exact figures for portable DRM radio sales, we can infer that a significant portion of India’s DRM audience listens via in-car receivers.

DRM in New Cars in India

• February 2024, it was estimated that over 6 million new cars had been sold with DRM radios factory-installed at no additional cost to the consumer.

• By the end of 2025, this number may exceed 7 million, considering that India sells around 3.6 million cars annually, and 30% of them are now DRM-compatible.

• This market trend makes in-car DRM adoption the main driver of digital radio reach in India today.

  

  https://www.trai.gov.in/sites/default/files/2024-11/Digital_Radio_Mondiale_24052023.pdf

  

Population Coverage vs. Listener Base

Below is a graph showing population coverage, which does not represent actual audience but instead shows potential listeners, people who live in areas where digital radio signals could be received using an appropriate device.

These growth projections will not materialize automatically; the trends outlined depend on certain interventions being adopted—interventions I’ve mentioned as necessary in previous posts and others I’ll address throughout this post. Even HD Radio needs to maintain its development to avoid potential decline. So, even if it doesn’t grow spectacularly, a continuous positive trajectory must be established in its ascent.

Preferred Standard by Region (Projected Trends)

Region	Predominant Standard
North America	HD Radio
Europe	DAB+
Africa	DRM/DAB
South Asia	DRM
Southeast Asia	DRM
Oceania	DAB+
South America	DRM (not yet started, but most viable)

*Here I bring a contribution from Emad Aldafrawy, a friend from the DRM - Digital Radio Mondiale community, he points out that in Eastern Europe, there is also a trend of DAB predominance, with the effective exception being Romania's international DRM broadcasts.

DAB+

DAB + will remain well-established across Europe, but its expansion may be limited as it approaches geographic and structural saturation. In some countries, DAB+ may coexist with DRM to complement national coverage, especially in remote or rural areas. DAB+ has evolved well with infrastructure densification, including in tunnels and improved end-user communication.

There are significant advances in some regions outside Europe. DAB is expanding in Africa and has already been adopted as the standard in Arabia. It is recognized as the standard in the rest of North Africa and has also been introduced in Turkey. Markets with connections or proximity to Europe are adopting DAB, which is logical from a logistical perspective.

*The information about the progress of DAB outside Europe was obtained from Emad Aldafrawy (Facebook Group DRM - Digital Radio Mondiale )

HD Radio

HDR enjoys strong institutional backing in the United States. However, its adoption hasn’t happened naturally; instead, it relied on heavy investments, lobbying, and financial incentives, leading to significant economic pressure on its promoters. Recent strategic focus appears to be limited to North America, as previous efforts in countries like Brazil resulted in high costs and little broadcaster enthusiasm. There are no major signs of further global expansion.

DRM (Regarding this standard, I will elaborate further on its potentialities.)

DRM, on the other hand, has the most favorable conditions for global expansion:

• Lowest transmission infrastructure cost.

• Works in multiple bands (AM, FM, SW, VHF).

• Already present in developing countries.

• High accessibility.

India plays a critical role in achieving global scale and lowering receiver costs. It provides a real-world laboratory of diverse testing conditions: high and low power, shortwave and medium wave, flat and mountainous terrain, day and night propagation, etc. This makes India the most valuable country for DRM system research and development.

Again: Cars, Cars, Cars

India already produces around 30% of new cars with DRM receivers. The DRM Consortium should focus heavily on expanding this penetration. If 70% of new vehicles include DRM in the coming years, the system will gain unstoppable momentum.

Mandating DRM in all new cars is not ideal. Instead, achieving adoption through negotiation with manufacturers and suppliers is the best path.

Cars are the primary radio environment. In homes and businesses, digital radio adoption competes with internet and television. Winning the car market means eventually winning the household and commercial market as well.

Once consumption reaches scale, equipment will become more affordable, which opens the door for DRM expansion in other countries. Rich, ongoing research in digital consumption, audience behavior, and system performance in India will inspire other nations to follow suit.

Growth in Number of Stations per Standard (2025–2030)

Note: Sources differ on station counts. The trends below are consistent across most reports, even if absolute numbers vary.

Standard	Trend
DAB+	Stable growth
HD Radio	Slight decline
DRM	Rapid expansion (with conditions)

Growth in Area Covered with Good-Quality Signal

DAB+

• Dominates Western and Northern Europe, Australia, South Korea.

• Growth is linear due to the need for dense infrastructure and government mandates.

• Expected to grow steadily, particularly with EU mandates for DAB+ in new cars.

HD Radio (IBOC)

• Widespread in the U.S., with HD2/HD3 subchannels available.

• Audience for subchannels is limited.

• Adoption outside the U.S. has stalled due to cost and licensing, slight decline with some subchannels likely to be shut down.

DRM (Digital Radio Mondiale)

• Fastest growth rate.

• India leads active medium-wave and shortwave DRM stations.

• New countries entering the system: Africa, Indonesia, Pakistan, Russia, Brazil.

• International DRM broadcasters include BBC, Vatican Radio, NHK, Radio Romania, KBS, and KTWR Guam.

As more developing nations adopt DRM, it will far surpass other standards in growth rate — in number of stations, coverage area, and listener base.

Listener Base Projection

This estimate will be published separately with detailed statistical modeling based on:

• Receiver sales (portable, household, automotive),

• Signal coverage,

• National radio listening habits,

• Average listening hours.

Due to the complexity of this projection, it will be presented in a future dedicated post.

To find out when the post with the audience estimates, which we will share in a few days, is released, join our Facebook group and receive constant updates on our posts, including a special alert about the audience estimates for digital radio standards.