Attention, radio and TV outlets in the region: signs point to developments in Venezuela

Donald Trump’s strategic playbook is inherently hard to predict. It’s difficult to anticipate how he thinks — and especially how he executes what he appears to want. Personally, I wouldn’t place him among the master strategists, and I doubt he easily accepts advice from seasoned generals. That said, many would certainly bet otherwise.

On the other side, Maduro and his allies don’t display particularly sophisticated strategic thinking. They remain in power through social control mechanisms, but show clear weaknesses when facing the prospect of conflict. Propaganda pieces — such as videos of “civilian training,” including elderly people forced into unsuitable drills — backfire and expose limitations rather than strength.

There are reports this Saturday of flights with possible desertion profiles out of Venezuela. The regime relies on coercion over an unarmed, tightly policed population; a controlled armed contingent can keep a country subdued by fear. Acting as a real military force against another, however, is a different matter. In a direct confrontation, I’d argue neighboring armies could outperform Venezuela’s — and I sincerely hope it never comes to that.

U.S. posture in the area

Puerto Rico has increasingly received U.S. troops and equipment, looking more and more like a forward base. The obvious layout is Florida as a force-projection hub and Puerto Rico as the advanced platform. For now, this suggests a psychological-pressure strategy aimed at prompting desertions within Maduro’s inner circle — including people close to him who may decide to “jump ship” in exchange for some benefit.

What local broadcasters should do next

This is the moment for each newsroom to run its own reporting: log movements, cross-check sources, and watch for objective signals. Colombian outlets are likely to be crucial, as are radio stations in Puerto Rico and Florida, which can hint at the tempo of deployments. If traditional media falls short in fieldwork, specialized military channels on YouTube will keep breaking stories first — as they did with parts of the Ukraine war coverage. These teams typically rely on technical sources (unsecured comms monitoring, imagery analysis, local reporting). In poorly disciplined environments, leaks via Telegram, Instagram, and WhatsApp are common — and U.S. intelligence knows how to exploit that. We already see Brazilian military channels reading these signals well. Should a conflict actually ignite, they may become primary sources while some mainstream outlets limit themselves to official statements or syndicated analyses from major U.S. networks.

It wouldn’t be surprising if even neighboring channels in the tension zone copied and repeated the analyses of CNN, CBS, and ABC, despite those networks being the ones with real proximity and direct insight into the conflict. I can even imagine local news portals replicating everything Globo (Brazil) and UOL(Brazil) publish, as if they were absolute truths about the situation.

Solid Portuguese-language military channels that often anticipate trends:

• https://www.youtube.com/@HojenoMundoMilitar

• https://www.youtube.com/@wrevolving

In English, there are countless high-quality channels; prioritize those that avoid sensationalism and commit to verified information and rigorous analysis.3